Eighteen months ago, we launched the Time to Sell Index (TTSI) to track market sentiment and help founders better time their exits.
Why? It’s personal.
In the late ’90s, I spent 10 years building a startup to a $180M valuation, only to lose it all when the dot-com crash hit. We missed the exit window. That experience taught me a hard truth: timing can make or break your outcome.
In fact, in Start. Scale. Exit. Repeat., we explore how timing alone can account for more than 50% of your company’s final valuation. When the market is frothy, you can command premium multiples. When it’s not, you’re fighting uphill.
We’re still far from the highs of 2021, and we may never return to those levels, but 2025 showed signs of a rebound and momentum.
Market Rebound in 2025
The IPO market surged to 347 public listings in 2025:
– A 125% increase from the low point of 2022
– A 54% increase from 2024
These numbers matter because IPO activity is the leading signal of liquidity across the startup ecosystem. It flows from the top:
Public companies acquire private companies.
Private equity and VC firms seek liquidity from those exits.
If the IPO window closes, deal flow dries up, valuations drop.
TTSI: Your Signal for Market Sentiment
The TTSI hit 26.9 out of 100 for 2025, up sharply from the single digits of 2023. It’s still a buyer’s market, but sentiment is clearly improving.
We use IPO volume as a proxy for market sentiment because it’s empirical, forward-looking, and tightly correlated with valuation multiples for growth companies.
When the index crosses 50, we consider it a seller’s market, a time when founders can expect stronger terms, higher valuations, and a broader buyer pool.
2026 Outlook
Based on the current IPO pipeline (~190 companies, up from ~170 at the start of 2025), we project:
– Approximately 388 public listings in 2026
– That would move the TTSI to 32.6, another meaningful step toward a seller’s market
If rates drop further or if major tech IPOs land, we could break 400 listings, pushing the index even higher.
Founder Takeaway
Market sentiment is improving and that opens a window.
If you can hold off on selling until the TTSI moves closer to 50, you’ll likely be entering a valuation-friendly environment.
That said, certain sectors (like AI) are already commanding frothy valuations. Timing your exit is a strategic decision, not just a personal one.
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