Is it the right time to sell your business?
I have pondered that question ever since blowing up my first big company and losing over 100 million in my late 20s. We spent 10 years building it and 10 weeks destroying our wealth on exit when the dot-com crash hit. Since then, you could say I am paranoid. Well, actually, I am frikin paranoid.
But it was a good lesson.
Over the last 20 years, I’ve exited several successful companies, one just a month before the Lehman crisis and another before the tech wreck of 2022.
This timing led me to ask:
When is the best time to sell your business?
There are two answers to this question which I address in my book Start. Scale. Exit. Repeat.:
- When we feel like everything is going great and times will never change.
- When empirical data over 25 years indicates the optimal time to sell.
What if you had a way of simply understanding general sentiment in the market vs. feeling like everything is great.
This led us at Startup Club to create the Time to Sell Index (TTSI) in our monthly newsletter, Startup Club Edge, which has become a masterclass in how to start, scale, exit, repeat.
All markets function within certain parameters. When times are booming, money is easy, IPOs flourish, and M&A deals flow. When times are tough, money is expensive, the IPO window shuts, and the only M&A deals are vultures picking at the skeleton of a startup.
Liquidity flows from the top of the ecosystem: the IPO market. Companies, VCs, and private equity all strive for IPO exits, and public companies ultimately acquire many private companies. When the top of the food chain breaks down, the entire ecosystem is impacted.
Startup Club’s Time to Sell Index (TTSI)
The TTSI tracks 25 years of IPO data from trough to peak to calculate market conditions for selling. We use IPO activity as a proxy since it signals liquidity in the ecosystem and valuations throughout the market.
From Stock Analysis, “There have been 180 IPOs on the US stock market in 2025. As of July 8, 2025, this is 91.49% more than the same time in 2024, which had 94 IPOs by this date.”
Based on current momentum, we estimate 310 IPOs for 2025, a 38% increase over last year (225 IPOs) and a 101% increase over the recent trough year of 154 IPOs.
For reference:
- Trough baseline: 154 IPOs
- Peak seller’s market: 873 IPOs (based on a 566.97% average increase from trough to peak over the last 25 years)
- Balanced market: ~513 IPOs
What does a TTSI of 22 mean?
The Time to sell index is an empirical measurement of sentiment in the market.
Based on our latest estimates, TTSI has jumped from 6.8 out of 100 last year to 22 out of 100 today. This is a significant improvement but still indicates a buyer’s market rather than a seller’s market.
While the IPO market is recovering, valuations for smaller companies tend to lag 6 -12 months behind IPO rebounds. Additional factors, such as lower interest rates, private equity activity, and venture capital flows, can also impact acquisition opportunities.
The bottom line:
The dark winter for exits is beginning to thaw, and green shoots are appearing. However, it is still not the peak time to sell. Instead, now is still the time to prepare, build, and position your company so that you are ready when the TTSI climbs higher, indicating a balanced or seller’s market.
At Startup Club, we believe timing your exit can make or break your wealth, and the TTSI provides a clear, data-driven signal for your next move.
Stay tuned for our next Startup Club Edge as we continue to track the TTSI and share actionable insights for founders building towards their optimal exit.
Colin C. Campbell Founder, Startup Club and Award Winning Author, Start. Scale. Exit. Repeat.